Swing Era
Swing Era
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The Swing Era
Huge Romney bounce in Florida (redstate)
We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states
weren't stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable
speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on.
Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone
10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.
Today I'm looking at the polls that ended Tuesday and Wednesday. That includes
three big, familiar names this cycle: ORC/CNN/Time, Rasmussen Reports, and
InsiderAdvantage.
I hate inconsistencies. The less consistent the polling is, either across
pollsters or between readings, the less confident we can be in making
predictions based on that polling. We can never be sure whether the changes
are the result of real movement in the electorate, or the result of some form
of measurement error.
In the case of Florida right now, the polling is looking to be inconsistent
over time. Rasmussen Reports (750 LVs, MoE 4) shows Romney 39, Gingrich 31, a
17 point swing from the Romney 32, Gingrich 41 reading of just three days
before. Inside Advantage (530 LVs, MoE 4) is very close to that: Romney 40,
Gignrich 32, a 16 point swing ...


US $225.00































